USC Trojans | Playoff Path
- SteveUSC
- Nov 8
- 3 min read
USC Trojans' College Football Playoff Chances (as of November 8, 2025)The USC Trojans enter Week 11 at 7-2 overall (4-2 in Big Ten play), sitting third in the conference behind undefeated powerhouses Ohio State (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) and Indiana (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten), with Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten) close behind at No. 10 in the initial CFP rankings.
Their resume includes a signature 38-17 win over Northwestern on Friday (November 7), keeping them squarely in the expanded 12-team playoff conversation despite two losses (to Notre Dame and Illinois).
USC is ranked No. 19 in the first CFP poll released this week, the fourth-highest Big Ten team after Ohio State (No. 1), Indiana (No. 2), and Oregon (No. 10).
Path to the Playoff: Realistic but NarrowIn the 12-team format, the top four conference champions get a first-round bye, while seeds 5-8 host first-round games, and seeds 9-12 play at higher seeds. USC's path hinges on finishing 10-2 or better—likely requiring a win out in their final four games—to secure an at-large bid (seeds 5-12) or the Big Ten championship game (via tiebreakers). A 9-3 finish might sneak them in as a low seed if chaos hits the conference (e.g., upsets among the leaders), but two losses already puts them at the committee's mercy.
Current Projections: ESPN's FPI gives USC a 21% chance to reach the playoff (up from 11% pre-Nebraska win), projecting 8.6 total wins.
Advanced metrics like Jeff Sagarin (USC No. 16 nationally) and Brian Fremeau's FEI (No. 13) rank them higher than the CFP committee, suggesting upside if their offense (top-10 in yards per game) clicks.
Betting odds imply +700 for a playoff spot (about 12-15% implied probability), reflecting skepticism but value in their schedule.
Remaining Schedule: Win-Out RequiredUSC's final stretch is manageable but pivotal, with two home games against ranked foes and a brutal road trip to Oregon. They control their destiny for a top-four Big Ten finish, which could land them in the title game at Lucas Oil Stadium (December 6).
Date | Opponent | Location | USC Rank | Opponent Rank (CFP) | Notes | |
Nov 15 | Iowa Hawkeyes | Home (Coliseum) | Homecoming; Iowa's defense is elite (top-5 nationally in points allowed). USC favored by 6-7 points. | |||
Nov 22 | at Oregon Ducks | Away (Autzen Stadium) | Must-win for legitimacy; Oregon's offense/defense duo is top-5 efficient. USC underdogs by 10+. Potential "elimination game." | |||
Nov 29 | Northwestern Wildcats | Home (Coliseum) | Unranked | Trap game post-Oregon; USC won 38-17 last week but NW is scrappy. Heavy favorites. | ||
Dec 6 | UCLA Bruins | Home (Coliseum) | Unranked (potentially rising) | Rivalry finale; UCLA has found stride lately. Win clinches bowl eligibility and bolsters resume. |
Sources: ESPN, USC Athletics, FBSchedules.com
Key Factors and Bold Prediction
Strengths: QB Jayden Maiava and WR Makai Lemon (career-high 161 yards vs. NW) power a top-6 rushing attack (200+ YPG) and explosive passing game.
RB King Miller's 129-yard Nebraska performance shows balance.
Defense improved under DC D'Anton Lynn but struggles vs. elite QBs (e.g., Raiola injury aided Nebraska win).
Weaknesses: Two losses to unranked teams (ND, Illinois) hurt eye test; November injuries (e.g., DT Jamaal Jarrett out) test depth.
Big Ten travel fatigue is real (cross-country flights to Nebraska, upcoming Oregon).
What They Need: Beat Iowa and NW to enter Oregon at 9-2, then upset the Ducks for a 10-2 resume with wins over two top-20 teams. Even a 9-3 (split Iowa/Oregon) could work if Ohio State/Indiana stumble.
Verdict: Yes, USC can make the playoffs—they're 21% likely per models and have the offense to upset Oregon (as CBS's Danny Kanell predicts a first-round win over them).
But it's improbable without perfection; expect a strong bowl (e.g., Alamo or Holiday) over a deep playoff run unless they channel 2022 vibes. Fight on—November football just got fun in LA.
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