USC vs Notre Dame | A Season Game Changer

Stakes & Narrative

The game has near playoff implications for both teams. Notre Dame, with two losses already, is effectively playing for its postseason hopes. USC likewise needs a marquee win to bolster its resume. SI
It may be one of the last times this rivalry is played in South Bend, amid uncertainty about the future of the USC–Notre Dame annual series. Los Angeles Times
USC has historically struggled in South Bend — they haven’t won a game there since 2011. SI+2Wikipedia+2

ESPN FPI gives Notre Dame about a 68.8% chance of winning, compared to a 31.2% chance for USC. SI
The betting line opened with Notre Dame favored by ~7.5 points. One Foot Down+1
Over/under (total expected points) is hovering in the low 60s (e.g. 61.5) depending on the sportsbook. One Foot Down+1

Unit	Expected Battle	What Could Decide It
Notre Dame’s defense	The Irish defense has shown improvement in recent weeks, especially under coordinator Chris Ash. CBS Sports+2The Observer+2	Can they contain USC’s explosive passing game (Makai Lemon, Ja’Kobi Lane, etc.)?
USC’s offense	The Trojans’ offense is regarded as explosive — they need to generate big plays. SI+2SI+2	Turnovers, pass protection, and getting to the end zone vs field goals will matter.
Special teams / turnovers	In close, rivalry games, hidden factors like special teams or turnovers tend to swing momentum.	A blocked kick, muffed punt, or interception could shift the game.
Game tempo / adjustments	Which team can impose its style — faster tempo or more physical grind — especially in the second half?	In-game adjustments by the coaching staff will be crucial.

Notre Dame is a modest favorite, but this isn’t expected to be a blowout. Many expect a close, competitive game where small margins matter.
Some analysts (e.g. from CBS Sports) lean Notre Dame but note 8.5 might be too large of a spread given USC’s capabilities. CBS Sports
If USC wants to win, they’ll likely need a near-perfect game — minimal turnovers, sustained drives, and a few explosive plays.
For Notre Dame, they need consistency, staying ahead in the trenches, and forcing USC’s offense into uncomfortable positions.